World Cup: a method for predicting the winner.


  I first came across this “theorem” in the runup to the 1992 World Cup. Its statement is:

If the World Cup tournament is held in a white-majority country, it will be won by a “non-white” team.

If it is held in a non-white country, it will be won by a “white” team.

Consider the instances before then:

1975  in Eng, won by WI   True

1979  in Eng, won by WI   True

1983 in Eng, won by Ind    True

1987 in Ind/Pak, won by Aus    True

Now we see how this theorem worked after someone had deduced it:

1992 in Aus/NZ, won by Pak    True (5 out of 5 so far)

1996 in Ind/Pak/SL, won by SL  False (for the first time)

1999 in Eng/Neth, won by Aus  False

2003 in SA/Ken/Zim, won by Aus True (we consider SA to be a non-white country)

2007 in WI, won by Aus                  True

2011 in Ind/BD/SL, won by Ind        False

Thus this theorem has worked in 7 out of 10 cases or 70%

Now figure out which of the following contenders will win in 2015: Ind, Pak, SL, BD, WI