As in the first Test at Centurion, we enter the last day with a potentially long run-chase.
South Africa was set 438 to win (remember that famous ODI when they reached that figure?) and had made 126/2 in 56 overs with about 90 overs left. They still need to make 312 runs at a run rate of 3.47, while they have reached 126/2 at an RR of 2.25
We look at 4th-innings scores above 300 in South Africa:
The highest winning score is 340/5 by SA vs Aus at Durban in 2002. But teams have got very close to winning by scoring 458 in 2013 and even 696 in 1939.
At Cape Town alone, we have:
The highest score to win is 334/6 by Aus in 2002, and overall it is 354/5 to draw by WI in 2004. SA’s highest score here is 335 (and lost) back in 1962. So 438 to win is unlikely.
But they had said that before this ODI in 2006:
Update: South Africa held on long enough to reach the last hour, making 248 in 137.4 overs and losing by 189 runs. Stokes took the final wicket, finishing with 47, 0-34, 72, 3-35 and 6 catches.