Covid-19: The quest for #1 position

Note: this draws upon the site

First we look at the “Total cases” at around 1100 hours on 10 Sep:

Global: 28027 K or 28.0 Million

  1. USA 6549 K or 23.4%

2. India 4466

3. Brazil 4199

4. Russia 1041

5. Peru 703

Next we look at the “Daily new cases” for 09 Sep:

Global: 287 K

  1. India 95 or 33.1%

2. USA 35

3. Brazil 34

4. Argentina 12

5. Spain 9

Now we see that while India is in 2nd place in total cases, it has a daily increase much higher that that of the US and is set to overtake the latter.

By simple linear extrapolation , we see that

India will overtake the US and have the #1 position in total cases on or about 15 October.

At this time, the global total cases will be 38.1 million

India and the USA will have both reached 7.77 million cases, and India will continue to be #1 as its growth rate is much higher than its “competitors”.

Now let us go to the “Number of deaths”:

Global number of deaths is 908 K on the morning of 10 Sep.

  1. USA 195 or 21.5%

2. Brazil 129

3. India 75

4. Mexico 69

5. UK 42

And the number of “Daily new deaths” on 09 Sep:

Global 6227

  1. USA 1209 or 19.4%

2. India 1168

3. Brazil 1136

4. Mexico 703

5. Argentina 253

Here, India will not be able to reach more than its present 3rd place, since its growth rate is just above that of Brazil’s and this cannot overtake Brazil in a short period. And the US has a higher growth rate, and thus cannot be overtaken by India or any other country in a short period.

To sum up: India is:

#2 in total cases, soon going to #1

#1 in daily new cases

#3 in total deaths

#2 in daily death rates (but close to #1 and #3).

So is there any parameter where India is not doing well? Yes, because of India’s larger population. India is likely to have a higher population than China by the end of this decade.

Per Capita cases (per million):

Global: 3600/M

  1. Qatar 43000

2. Bahrain 34000

3. French Guiana 31400

Here India is 86/215 with 3200 cases per million, below the global average.

Per capita deaths (per million):

Global 117/M

  1. San Marino 1240

2. Peru 920

3. Belgium 860

(Note that San Marino has a population well below 1 million)

Here India is 83/215 with 54 deaths per million, again below the global average.

It would be nice to be in pole position for all these parameters, but one cannot have everything.