IPL 2020-the end run

This is written after the 48th match on October 28. With only CSK out of the running, it is possible to work out scenarios where all 7 of the other teams could qualify for the last 4.

We now look at the last stages of the IPLs of the last three editions.

2017

After league stage, we had:

  1. Mumbai -> Winner
  2. Pune -> Runner up
  3. Hyderabad -> 4th
  4. Kolkata -> 3rd

We see that No 1 went on to win, No 2 went on to be runner up and so on.

2018

  1. Hyderabad -> Runner up
  2. Chennai -> Winner
  3. Kolkata -> 3
  4. Rajasthan -> 4

2019

  1. Mumbai -> Winner
  2. Chennai -> Runner up
  3. Delhi -> 3
  4. Hyderabad -> 4

One can, of course, look back all the way to 2008. But from the above sample, we see that

The #1 and #2 will be the winner and runner-up, though not necessarily in that order.

The #3 and #4 will NOT be the winner and runner-up.

Now let us see how this empirical law works this time.

After match 48, this was the table:

Predicting the last 4 in IPL 2020

By the time you read this, over 60% of the league matches will be over. We now have a clearer idea of who can qualify and who is out of the race. We look at the points tables of the past 3 tournaments:

2017

1 Mumbai 20

2 Pune 18

3 Hyderabad 17

4 Kolkata 16

(next) 14

2018

1 Hyderabad 18

2 Chennai 18

3 Kolkata 16

4 Rajasthan 14

(next) 12

2019

1 Mumbai 18

2 Chennai 18

3 Delhi 18

4 Hyderabad 12

(next 2 teams also had 12)

Under normal circumstances 16 points should get a team into the last 4 without trouble. Hyderabad was exceptionally lucky in 2019.

IPL 2019-looking ahead to the last 4

As we now know, the last four after the group stage are:

  1. MI    18
  2. CSK  18
  3. DC    18
  4. SRH  12

Can we predict anything about the final result? Let us see how the past 3 editions have turned out.

2016

1 GL (RIP) 18, 3rd place

2 RCB        16, 2nd place

3 SRH        16, won

4 KKR       16, 4th place

2017

1 MI         20, won

2 RP (RIP)18, 2nd

3 SRH       17, 4th

4 KKR      16, 3rd

2018

1 SRH       18, 2nd

2 CSK       18, won

3 KKR      16, 3rd

4 RR         14, 4th

Notes: In 2019 SRH qualified with 12 points, which must be the lowest points to qualify in the 56-match format. Last year RR qualified with 14 which may be the second lowest.

Based on the history given above, the winner could be the 1st, 2nd  or 3rd placed in the group stage.

 

 

 

IPL 2019 at the halfway mark

On April 13, the 27th and 28th matches were played which brings us to the halfway stage of the league matches. The story so far:

IPL after 28 matches

We look back at the final tables of the past 3 tournaments. Note that each team plays 14 matches.

2018: In descending order 18,18, 16,14,12

2017: 20,18,17,16,14

2016: 18,16,16,16,14

Conclusion: To qualify for the semis, you need 16 points (or 8 victories) to be assured of a place. If you are very lucky (as in 2018) 14 points maybe enough to scrape through.

Now see what your favorite team needs to qualify.

IPL League matches 2018-what lies ahead

At the time of writing (after the RR-SRH match on 29/4), when 28 of the 56 league matches were over the points table was:

IPL 2018 halfway

Now we look at the final points table for 2015, 2016 and 2017:

2015:

2015 IPL League

2016:

2016 IPL league table

2017:

2017 IPL League table

The main concern now is to predict who will be in the last four. We see that in the three seasons a team needed 16 points to qualify. This would correspond to 8 wins, or 7 wins and two no-results. Once you are in the last four it is even more of a lottery than in “normal” tournaments such as the World Cup.

A quick look at the half-time table for 2018 shows that the leader SRH has played 8 matches and have 12 points. To just scrape through they need just 2 wins in 6 matches.

Second-placed CSK have 7 matches and 10 points. They need 3 wins in 7 matches.

At the bottom end, DD have 7 matches and 4 points. They need 6 wins from 7 matches. But if you look at the history of the IPL, probably comebacks like this have happened on rare occasions.

Next to the bottom there is RCB with 6 matches and 4 points. They need 6 wins from 8 matches.