Looking ahead to India’s elections in 2017-Part 1

These are the Assembly elections due to take place in 2017:

state-assembly-2017

Knowing the end dates of the Assembly terms and the way that the Election Commission has handled things in the recent past, the approximate dates of polling can be predicted. It is too early to make serious predictions on the results.

I have included a column showing the number of Lok Sabha seats for each state. This is to keep things in perspective; even HP and UK do not account for even 1% of the Lok Sabha strength. Thus what happens in these states plus Goa and Manipur are not very significant on the national level. The real battleground is UP and Punjab now, and Gujarat later in the year.

So what difference do these results make to the larger picture? In terms of the Presidential election in July, not much. In terms of the composition of the Rajya Sabha, again not much because the seats up for election in 2017 are primarily from Bengal and Gujarat where there is not likely to be much change in the Rajya Sabha members elected. I will cover this in more detail later.

What is significant is the likelihood of a change in government in UP and Punjab, and probably Uttarakhand and Himachal as well. Even if there is a change in Goa and Manipur, it may not matter on the larger scale unless the AAP does unexpectedly well in Goa. What impact these changes will have on the functioning of the Central government are very speculative at the moment.

To be continued.

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More about Indian Prime Ministers

A tabulation of basic biographical and geographical details of persons who have been Prime Ministers of India, including the Acting ones. This may answer any doubts you may have had from the previous post.

Note that V.P. Singh was known as the Raja of Manda, though this was a zamindari estate and not a princely state.

Also to confirm that even some official websites have confusing information, even if they are produced by the Lok Sabha themselves. Gulzarilal Nanda was MP from Sabarkantha (Gujarat) when he was Acting PM and was later MP from Kaithal (Haryana). He also lived for a slightly longer time than Morarji Desai, but still missed crossing a century.

prime-ministers