de Kock’s misfortune

This refers to the 2nd Test between Pakistan and South Africa at Rawalpindi, which was played on 4-8 Feb 2021.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/south-africa-in-pakistan-2020-21-1242968/pakistan-vs-south-africa-2nd-test-1243018/full-scorecard

Needing 370 to win, SA made a reasonably good start. Things started going wrong when Markram was dismissed at 241/4. Captain Quinton de Kock came in, and was promptly dismissed first ball by Hasan Ali, becoming one of this bowler’s five victims in the innings and ten in the match.

It must be particularly mortifying for a captain to be dismissed first ball in the 4th innings of a difficult chase. Let us see how many times it has happened.

While the number of balls in an innings have not always been recorded before 2000, we presume that most golden ducks have been recorded.

Golden duck by captain in 4th innings:

This includes all cases (win, loss, tie, draw).

23 such cases ending with Q de Kock. Many prominent captains appear here, such as Sobers, Greg Chappell (twice), Atherton, Ganguly, Inzamam and more recently Kohli and Root.

What if the team won in the chase despite the captain getting a golden duck? See this list:

That was a very short list of two. And they were relatively less prominent captains.

Now see when teams have tied or drawn in the chase when the captain got a golden duck:

5 such instances. The one involving Sobers was not in the second Test which India won, but the 5th one which India came close to winning (thanks partly to Gavaskar’s 124 and 220).

And finally, cases when teams have lost in the chase when the captain got a golden duck:

16 such cases, ending with de Kock. He is in distinguished company, along with his contemporaries Kohli and Root.

The 4th innings in Brisbane

As you know, India needs 328 to win and has made 4/0 at the close of the 4th day.

The weather prospects on Tuesday, 19th January are not great. See this or any similar site:

https://www.bbc.com/weather/2174003

Now we look at past performances in the 4th innings at Brisbane, going back all the way to 1931.

Here we have all 4th innings scores above 100.

The highest to win is 236/7 by Australia in 1951-52.

The highest to win against Australia is 170/3 by England in 1978-79 (when Australia a weak Packerized team and lost the series 5-1).

The highest to draw is 278/6 by England in 1962-63

There is also a tie by Australia who made 232 against WI in 1960-61.

The highest to lose is 450 by Pakistan in 2016-17 (lost by 39 runs). Then there is 370 by England in 2006-07 (lost by 277, chasing 648). Then there are two losses by India in 1967-68 (355, lost by 39) and in 1977-78 (324, lost by 16).

So it is not impossible to make 300+ in the last innings. It may be possible to grind out a draw (although Vihari and Ashwin are not here now). For anything else either Australia has to bowl exceptionally well or India’s first 5 have to bat exceptionally well (to make 324 in less than a day).

A rain-ruined draw is the most likely outcome.

The 4th innings at Cape Town

As in the first Test at Centurion, we enter the last day with a potentially long run-chase.

South Africa was set 438 to win (remember that famous ODI when they reached that figure?) and had made 126/2 in 56 overs with about 90 overs left. They still need to make 312 runs at a run rate of 3.47, while they have reached 126/2 at an RR of 2.25

We look at 4th-innings scores above 300 in South Africa:

4th innings in SA

The highest winning score is 340/5 by SA vs Aus at Durban in 2002. But teams have got very close to winning by scoring 458 in 2013 and even 696 in 1939.

At Cape Town alone, we have:

4th innings in Cape Town

The highest score to win is 334/6 by Aus in 2002, and overall it is 354/5 to draw by WI in 2004.  SA’s highest score here is 335 (and lost) back in 1962. So 438 to win is unlikely.

But they had said that before this ODI in 2006:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/14676/scorecard/238200/south-africa-vs-australia-5th-odi-australia-tour-of-south-africa-2005-06

Update: South Africa held on long enough to reach the last hour, making 248 in 137.4 overs and losing by 189 runs. Stokes took the final wicket, finishing with 47, 0-34, 72, 3-35 and 6 catches.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/19430/scorecard/1185305/south-africa-vs-england-2nd-test-icc-world-test-championship-2019-2021

 

 

Kings of the fourth-innings chase (Revised-Jan 17, 2018)

This was originally written in July 2015. For some reason it started getting some views again during the 2nd Test between South Africa and India in January 2018. So I thought of revising it.

We also see which bowlers have been most successful under these conditions. Here we consider all Tests ending up to January 17, 2018. The batsmen are arranged by order of averages. GC Smith is the only one to have over 1000 runs in successful chases.

A cutoff of 15 innings is considered:

4th innings-batting

GC Smith also has the most centuries (4) and 50+ scores (10).

It is also interesting to see which bowlers have been most successful in terminating 4th-innings run chases.

Here we take a minimum of 1500 balls bowled:

4th innings-bowling

While Warne is the only one with over 100 wickets taken in Tests where a side is bowled out in the 4th innings, Ashwin and McGrath have the best averages. Herath (85) and McGrath (83) are next to Warne.

The best economy rate is (unexpectedly) by RA Jadeja followed by Ray Illingworth. And the best strike rate is by Waqar Younis followed by Ashwin.

Herath (10), Muralitharan (7) and Ashwin (6) have the most fivers. Ashwin and Jadeja can be called the twin destroyers in the 4th innings at present.

While we are at it, let us see about

Fielding under these conditions (again with a minimum of 15 innings fielded) and minimum 0.500 dismissals/innings:

Fielding-4th innings

Gilchrist has the most dismissals with 52, while he and Haddin have the most catches (47). Gilchrist also has the most stumpings with 5. M. Jayawardene has the most catches (27) by a non-keeper followed by Ponting with 26. When we look at dismissals per innings, Haddin (2.173) has the highest followed by Gilchrist, Healy and Boucher. Among non-keepers, M. Jayawardene (1.285) is followed by Redpath.