de Kock’s misfortune

This refers to the 2nd Test between Pakistan and South Africa at Rawalpindi, which was played on 4-8 Feb 2021.

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/south-africa-in-pakistan-2020-21-1242968/pakistan-vs-south-africa-2nd-test-1243018/full-scorecard

Needing 370 to win, SA made a reasonably good start. Things started going wrong when Markram was dismissed at 241/4. Captain Quinton de Kock came in, and was promptly dismissed first ball by Hasan Ali, becoming one of this bowler’s five victims in the innings and ten in the match.

It must be particularly mortifying for a captain to be dismissed first ball in the 4th innings of a difficult chase. Let us see how many times it has happened.

While the number of balls in an innings have not always been recorded before 2000, we presume that most golden ducks have been recorded.

Golden duck by captain in 4th innings:

This includes all cases (win, loss, tie, draw).

23 such cases ending with Q de Kock. Many prominent captains appear here, such as Sobers, Greg Chappell (twice), Atherton, Ganguly, Inzamam and more recently Kohli and Root.

What if the team won in the chase despite the captain getting a golden duck? See this list:

That was a very short list of two. And they were relatively less prominent captains.

Now see when teams have tied or drawn in the chase when the captain got a golden duck:

5 such instances. The one involving Sobers was not in the second Test which India won, but the 5th one which India came close to winning (thanks partly to Gavaskar’s 124 and 220).

And finally, cases when teams have lost in the chase when the captain got a golden duck:

16 such cases, ending with de Kock. He is in distinguished company, along with his contemporaries Kohli and Root.

The 4th innings in Brisbane

As you know, India needs 328 to win and has made 4/0 at the close of the 4th day.

The weather prospects on Tuesday, 19th January are not great. See this or any similar site:

https://www.bbc.com/weather/2174003

Now we look at past performances in the 4th innings at Brisbane, going back all the way to 1931.

Here we have all 4th innings scores above 100.

The highest to win is 236/7 by Australia in 1951-52.

The highest to win against Australia is 170/3 by England in 1978-79 (when Australia a weak Packerized team and lost the series 5-1).

The highest to draw is 278/6 by England in 1962-63

There is also a tie by Australia who made 232 against WI in 1960-61.

The highest to lose is 450 by Pakistan in 2016-17 (lost by 39 runs). Then there is 370 by England in 2006-07 (lost by 277, chasing 648). Then there are two losses by India in 1967-68 (355, lost by 39) and in 1977-78 (324, lost by 16).

So it is not impossible to make 300+ in the last innings. It may be possible to grind out a draw (although Vihari and Ashwin are not here now). For anything else either Australia has to bowl exceptionally well or India’s first 5 have to bat exceptionally well (to make 324 in less than a day).

A rain-ruined draw is the most likely outcome.