On Apr 24, the 42nd match was played which brings us to the three-quarter stage of the league matches. The story so far:
We look back at the final tables of the past 3 tournaments. Note that each team plays 14 matches.
2018: In descending order 18,18, 16,14,12
Conclusion: To qualify for the semis, you need 16 points (or 8 victories) to be assured of a place. If you are very lucky (as RR was in 2018) 14 points maybe enough to scrape through.
Now see what your favorite team needs to qualify.
It appears that the top 4 teams above are the ones which will go into the last 4. After that it is a lottery.