IPL 2019-looking ahead to the last 4

As we now know, the last four after the group stage are:

  1. MI    18
  2. CSK  18
  3. DC    18
  4. SRH  12

Can we predict anything about the final result? Let us see how the past 3 editions have turned out.

2016

1 GL (RIP) 18, 3rd place

2 RCB        16, 2nd place

3 SRH        16, won

4 KKR       16, 4th place

2017

1 MI         20, won

2 RP (RIP)18, 2nd

3 SRH       17, 4th

4 KKR      16, 3rd

2018

1 SRH       18, 2nd

2 CSK       18, won

3 KKR      16, 3rd

4 RR         14, 4th

Notes: In 2019 SRH qualified with 12 points, which must be the lowest points to qualify in the 56-match format. Last year RR qualified with 14 which may be the second lowest.

Based on the history given above, the winner could be the 1st, 2nd  or 3rd placed in the group stage.

 

 

 

IPL 2019 at the three-quarter mark

On Apr 24, the 42nd match was played which brings us to the three-quarter stage of the league matches. The story so far:

IPL 2019 after 42 matches

We look back at the final tables of the past 3 tournaments. Note that each team plays 14 matches.

2018: In descending order 18,18, 16,14,12

2017: 20,18,17,16,14

2016: 18,16,16,16,14

Conclusion: To qualify for the semis, you need 16 points (or 8 victories) to be assured of a place. If you are very lucky (as RR was in 2018) 14 points maybe enough to scrape through.

Now see what your favorite team needs to qualify.

It appears that the top 4 teams above are the ones which will go into the last 4. After that it is a lottery.

 

IPL 2019 at the halfway mark

On April 13, the 27th and 28th matches were played which brings us to the halfway stage of the league matches. The story so far:

IPL after 28 matches

We look back at the final tables of the past 3 tournaments. Note that each team plays 14 matches.

2018: In descending order 18,18, 16,14,12

2017: 20,18,17,16,14

2016: 18,16,16,16,14

Conclusion: To qualify for the semis, you need 16 points (or 8 victories) to be assured of a place. If you are very lucky (as in 2018) 14 points maybe enough to scrape through.

Now see what your favorite team needs to qualify.

IPL 2018-Looking forward to the playoffs

First the 2018 league table:

IPL League Table 2018

And the corresponding tables of 2015, 2016 and 2017 (in that order):

2015 IPL League2016 IPL league table2017 IPL League table

Note that the 2018 table shows a slight departure from the past. From 2015 to 2017, 16 points was a clear demarcator for qualifying for the playoff rounds. In 2018 RR has qualified with 14 points.

Does the position in the league table give a clear indication of the final winner?

In 2015: Winner MI (2nd in league), runners-up CSK (1st)

In 2016: Winner RCB (2nd), runners-up SRH (3rd)

In 2017: Winner MI (1st), runners-up RPS (2nd)

We see that in recent history the 2nd-ranked team in the league has slightly better chances – so CSK can be said to be the favourite (if one is superstitious).